The history of the warehouse real estate market in Poland clearly illustrates the evolution of investor preferences. In 2005, with total supply at around 2.5 million m², the strongest interest focused on safe investments in facilities located in major metropolitan areas, Warsaw, Poznań, Wrocław, and key transportation hubs of Upper Silesia. Capital favored standardized, large-scale big-box buildings dominated by logistics functions.
At that time, investors viewed real estate primarily through the lens of stability and predictable cash flows. Even if the returns were not the highest, the safety of the investment and the location within a strong economic center guaranteed capital protection. This approach aligned with the logic of a developing market that was still learning institutional standards and beginning to attract the first foreign funds.
Market Evolution and New Value Criterias
Twenty years later, with total stock exceeding 36 million m², the market has undergone a profound transformation. Institutional investors have moved away from purely portfolio-based, one-size-fits-all acquisitions toward more sophisticated investment decisions. The focus has shifted from standardized (generic) buildings to projects that ensure long-term benefits: stable income, resilience to change, and compliance with ESG principles, truly sustainable projects.
Today, analyses no longer concentrate solely on purchase price and potential yield but also on the entire lifecycle of an asset, from construction and financing costs, through operational efficiency, to potential exit scenarios. In this sense, warehouses have ceased to be mere “boxes for goods”; they have become an integral part of long-term risk management strategies.
This transformation has been driven not only by the growth of e-commerce and Poland’s rising role as a logistics hub in Europe but also by changes in financing structures and the professionalization of asset management. The activity of the first Polish funds and the expansion of major global players have made institutional standards a market norm. Investors today expect not only attractive returns but also process transparency, certifications (BREEAM, LEED), and clear environmental accountability.
The End of the Generic Building Era – What Investors Expect Today
Asset managers and fund managers now face a significant challenge. Commercial real estate, including warehouses, is still often classified as an alternative asset, alongside private equity, hedge funds, infrastructure, or commodities. It competes for investors’ attention with the core asset classes such as cash instruments, equities, and bonds.
Investment decisions are driven by factors such as expected return, opportunity cost, fund allocation limits, and above all, the safety and stability of cash flows. Initially, generic buildings were attractive: simple in layout, technically repetitive, easy to lease and re-lease. Over time, however, it became evident that such technical standardization quickly loses competitiveness and fails to meet evolving tenant needs or market standards.
Today’s investor takes a broader view, analyzing CO₂ emissions during operation, the potential for energy cost reduction, and the quality of the working environment provided to users. A property that neglects these criteria risks losing value faster than ever before.
The key question now is whether a given asset can adapt to changing market demands. Both tenants and institutional investors seek flexible spaces that can accommodate light manufacturing or e-commerce operations while still offering potential for future expansion. A lack of such adaptability increases the risk of vacancies and long-term value erosion.
The New Map of the Warehouse Market: Segmentation as the Foundation of Investment Strategy
A sustainable investment strategy would not be possible without deep market segmentation in the warehouse sector. The initial approach of developers and investors could be described as one-size-fits-all, dominated by large big-box facilities meeting mass logistics and consolidation needs. While scalable, such facilities often led to tenant rotation, rent pressure, and higher asset management costs, ultimately reducing income stability and asset value.
Evolving demand has given rise to new formats:
• Urban hubs serving last-mile logistics
• Cross-dock platforms
• Facilities dedicated to light manufacturing
• Cold storage and freezer warehouses, where capital-intensive specifications are offset by long-term lease agreements
Market segmentation has become the foundation of investment strategy. Alongside traditional big-box formats, smaller urban warehouses are gaining importance by reducing delivery times and supporting last-mile logistics. At the same time, specialized formats, such as cold storage, are increasingly valued for their higher investment requirements but long, stable leases. This portfolio diversification mitigates risk and makes investments more resilient to economic fluctuations.
Another crucial dimension is ESG policy and EU Taxonomy requirements. For LemonTree, these are not merely obligations but, above all, a source of value for investors: energy-efficient buildings with lower operating costs and greater tenant appeal have the potential to command a market value premium.
Thus, the current segmentation of the market can be presented in three phases:
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First-generation assets (pre-ESG)
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Buildings in transition (ESG-ready)
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Mature, fully sustainable investments — the ultimate ambition of LemonTree
Capital and ESG in Practice – How We Create an Investment Product
The Investment Department at LemonTree supports capital partners in creating a target institutional investment product from the earliest pre-development phase. We believe that the success of an investment strategy does not depend on addressing technical, commercial, tax, or regulatory aspects separately, but on integrating them.
That is why our experts combine legal, financial, technical, and transactional expertise, viewing each project through the lens of the end investor. The development process is conducted under a “continuous vendor due diligence” framework, constantly testing and prototyping new solutions.
An increasingly important element is compliance with the EU Taxonomy and ESG regulations. In practice, this translates into LemonTree’s awareness that investors analyze a project’s carbon footprint, water management, material recycling rate, and the investment’s impact on local communities. Buildings that fail to meet these standards may soon face restricted access to financing. Conversely, those meeting the highest ESG criteria gain valuation premiums, translating directly into higher market value.
This approach enables us to:
• Build long-term real estate value
• Introduce only those innovations that genuinely increase an asset’s resilience to technological and regulatory change (future-proof)
Case Studies – How LemonTree’s Strategy Works in Practice
A good example is BOOSTER ZABRZE by LemonTree, with a target area exceeding 100,000 m², combining multiple functions: cold storage and freezer facilities (40,000 m²), a cross-dock platform, urban logistics space (10,000 m²), and a classic big-box warehouse. Such investments, which we call business parks, provide capital partners with a broad offer for various tenant types, as well as stable, long-term lease income tailored to specific client requirements.
The success of such projects does not rely solely on location or scale. BOOSTER ZABRZE by LemonTree has become a market benchmark, demonstrating how combining diverse functions, from cross-dock to cold storage and traditional big-box, can create a business park uniquely resistant to demand fluctuations.
Another example is WESTSIDE SZCZECIN by LemonTree, which illustrates how to secure an attractive location for a speculative development. Although no leases were signed at the outset, by the start of construction commercialization had already exceeded 60%, enabling bank financing. This success was driven by:
• Proximity to retail facilities
• Energy-efficient technical solutions
• The strong reputation of LemonTree as a sustainable developer
The WESTSIDE SZCZECIN complex proves that even a speculative project can succeed if delivered with the right partner, aligned with ESG standards, and designed around future tenant needs. Both examples confirm that investing in sustainable logistics is no longer a trend, it is a necessity.
Conclusion: Investing in Sustainable Logistics with LemonTree
The past twenty years have brought a profound transformation of Poland’s warehouse market and LemonTree’s three-year history is part of this change. We believe that capital investments can combine attractive returns with ESG policy and predictable risk management.
To conclude, the new realities of logistics investments are redefining the very notion of value. It is no longer about size or rent alone, long-term stability, ESG compliance, flexibility, and tenant appeal are now the key factors. Investors who can take a broader view and collaborate with developers from the earliest stages gain a competitive edge in an increasingly demanding and mature market.