Europe’s commercial real estate market is recovering more slowly than expected. Poland stands out, however, thanks to its economic growth, rising transaction activity and the scale of interest from global capital. This is not a risk-free story: financing conditions remain challenging, rental growth is normalising, and investors are increasingly differentiating assets based on income quality, location and technical standards.
In the second quarter of 2026, geopolitical tensions, energy prices and renewed inflation concerns dampened expectations of an acceleration in European commercial real estate investment. According to European Investment Nowcast, published by Savills Research, transaction volumes in Europe reached EUR 53 billion in Q2 2026, up 6% year-on-year. The total for the first half of the year amounted to EUR 103 billion, representing a 3% year-on-year increase. Behind this moderate result lies significant geographical variation rather than a uniform retreat by investors from commercial real estate.
Sentiment in the logistics sector is now more balanced than during the post-pandemic boom. The sector’s share of European investment volume fell by approximately 3 percentage points in the first half of 2026, to around 16%. Long-term demand drivers, such as supply chain modernisation and e-commerce, remain in place. However, following several years of exceptionally strong performance, investors are paying greater attention to pricing, income durability and asset quality.
The cost of capital continues to limit the potential for rapid yield compression. In many countries, long-term government bond yields have risen by approximately 25 basis points since the beginning of the second quarter. As a result, stabilisation in capitalisation rates remains the base-case scenario for prime assets, with selective compression possible only for exceptional properties. This clearly indicates that the European market is moving from a phase of broad-based growth towards more disciplined capital allocation.
Why does Poland stand out among mature markets?
The first differentiating factor is economic growth. Current forecasts indicate that Poland is set to grow faster than the euro area, supported by consumption, EU-funded investment and an industrial recovery. Oxford Economics has raised its forecast for Poland’s GDP growth in 2026 to 4.0%, while also projecting fixed investment growth of 8.9% and industrial production growth of 3.4%.
The second advantage lies in the structure of the economy. Poland combines a large consumer market with a developed industrial base and a strategic position along European transport corridors. Manufacturing, transport and warehousing are expanding not only in Warsaw, but also around Wrocław, Poznań, Gdańsk and other major regional centres. The authors of Oxford Economics’ Country Real Estate Report | Poland expect Warsaw to become Europe’s third-largest transport and warehousing hub by gross value added (GVA) by 2050.
The third factor is the potential for further e-commerce growth. The report mentioned above indicates that online sales could account for approximately 23% of Polish retail sales by 2032, while the value of Warsaw’s logistics market is expected to increase significantly by 2050. This means that structural demand is driven not only by the economic cycle, but also by changes in consumption and distribution patterns.
Capital is returning to Poland, but investors are selective
According to Knight Frank’s Investment Market in Poland report, investment volume in Polish warehouse properties reached nearly EUR 782 million in the first half of 2026, up 13% year-on-year and the highest level since 2021. The warehouse sector accounted for 26% of total commercial real estate investment volume in Poland, while the number of transactions increased by half.
The composition of capital confirms the institutional nature of the market. US investors accounted for 62% of warehouse transaction volume, while French capital was becoming increasingly active. Across the broader Polish real estate market, capital from Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) accounted for 46% of investment volume, led by Czech investors.
This distinction is important. US capital dominated the warehouse sector, whereas regional investors were strongly represented across the market as a whole. This means Poland is not dependent on a single source of investment demand, although individual segments have different buyer profiles and levels of liquidity.
Investment returns: more income, less spectacular appreciation
Oxford Economics forecasts average annual asset value growth of 1.2% and rental growth of 1.3%, both significantly below the levels recorded in 2021–2025. The bulk of investment returns is therefore expected to come from income rather than sharp yield compression or rapid rental growth.
This positions Poland as an attractive market, but not automatically a cheap one. Under the Relative Return Index methodology, Poland’s industrial real estate sector is classified as neutral return, meaning that its projected return is broadly in line with the required return after accounting for the risk-free rate and the risk premium. For investors, this underscores the need to select individual assets carefully and assess their business plans, rather than basing decisions solely on the difference between Polish capitalisation rates and those in core markets.
Knight Frank estimates prime yields for industrial and logistics assets in Poland at 6.25%. At the same time, European sources anticipate short-term stabilisation in prime yields. The potential to achieve above-average returns will therefore depend primarily on acquisition quality, cash flow durability, cost management and opportunities to improve asset performance.
Will the trend continue, and is Poland worth observing? 
Poland’s warehouse market remains worth watching, but the investment thesis should be based on income durability and asset quality rather than macroeconomic growth alone. The reports cited point to a constructive medium-term outlook: stronger economic growth than in many European countries, e-commerce expansion, Poland’s importance in European supply chains and projected attractive returns from the sector.
At the same time, the market is likely to become more selective. Supply in Warsaw may continue to grow faster than the average across European cities, limiting the pace of rental growth. Additional risks include fiscal, inflationary, energy-related and currency risks. As a result, assets with average locations, shorter income visibility or substantial capital expenditure requirements may perform differently from modern prime properties developed in line with sustainability principles.
Capital from CEE, the US and Asia
In the short term, regional and US investors remain the most natural sources of further demand. Czech capital was the largest source of investment in the Polish real estate market as a whole in the first half of 2026, while US investors dominated the warehouse sector. Reports also confirm the presence of Asian capital, but describe its activity as selective and concentrated on smaller-scale investments. They do not yet provide a basis for forecasting a broad influx of Asian capital into Poland’s logistics sector.
Exchange rates remain an important factor in the required rate of return. Oxford Economics noted the relative stability of EUR/PLN in the first part of 2026 and lower currency risk than six months earlier. For foreign investors, this does not eliminate foreign exchange risk, but it does reduce short-term volatility in one of the variables affecting investment decisions.
ESG and certification: important screening criteria, but no quantified premium yet
Market reports show that investors and lenders are placing greater emphasis on asset quality, income security and pricing discipline. However, they do not provide data that would make it possible to quantify a price premium, the impact of ESG certification on capitalisation rates, or differences in liquidity between certified and non-certified warehouse properties in Poland.
ESG certification should therefore be treated as part of a broader assessment of asset quality and future competitiveness, rather than as a standalone guarantee of a particular valuation. In investment practice, particular attention should be paid to energy intensity, access to renewable energy, the building’s technical specifications, the risk of future refurbishment expenditure, and the expectations of tenants and lenders.
A market worth watching
Poland is entering the next phase of the cycle with stronger economic growth than many Western European markets, a developed industrial and logistics base, and a clear recovery in investment liquidity. At the same time, expected sector returns will rely more heavily on income than on rapid capital appreciation. This favours investors who can select assets carefully, price tenant and location risks appropriately, and actively manage a building’s technical standards in cooperation with experienced developers.
The key question, therefore, is not whether Poland offers higher capitalisation rates than core markets. It should be framed differently: does the income premium adequately compensate for financing, currency, supply and future capital expenditure risks, while still allowing investors to participate in the structural growth of e-commerce, industry and European supply chains? It is in this context that Poland’s warehouse market deserves particular attention from European capital.