Over the past two decades, the Polish warehouse market has grown faster than most commercial real estate sectors, transforming Poland into one of Europe’s largest and most important logistics hubs, ranking fifth in terms of total supply. Its infrastructure has reached a level comparable to that of the most developed Western economies. Yet this is not the end of the sector’s development story – it is the beginning of a new chapter. Today, the key question is no longer how much space we can build, but rather what role logistics and industrial real estate will play in the economy of the future and what will determine its value ten or twenty years from now.
Poland has completed the catch-up phase
Just over a decade ago, the industry’s primary objective was to deliver enough modern warehouse space to satisfy shortages and rapidly growing demand. Poland’s economy was expanding dynamically, transport infrastructure was developing at an unprecedented pace, and investors were looking for locations capable of supporting growing manufacturing, trade and logistics activity.
By the end of Q1 2026, Poland’s modern warehouse and logistics stock had exceeded 37 million sqm. According to advisory firms, market saturation has reached almost 1 sqm per capita, a level comparable to major Western European economies such as Germany and France. At the same time, more than 70% of existing stock is less than ten years old, giving Poland one of the youngest warehouse markets in Europe.
This is an important moment for the entire sector. A market that spent years catching up on infrastructure deficits has now reached a level of maturity that requires a completely different approach to value creation. Future growth will no longer be driven by simply adding more supply. Instead, it will depend on the quality of assets, their flexibility, location and ability to respond to the evolving needs of the economy.
New drivers of growth
Market maturity does not mean stagnation. What is changing are the sources of growth. A few years ago, the main engines of expansion were retail chains, e-commerce and logistics operators. Today, global and long-term structural trends are becoming increasingly important.
The first of these are nearshoring and friendshoring. Global companies are redesigning their supply chains, shortening them and relocating production closer to European consumer markets. Poland is at the centre of this process thanks to its geographic location, developed infrastructure, cost competitiveness and strategic role within the region. Examples abound: Windar Renovables is building a wind turbine tower manufacturing plant in Lower Silesia, Garmin has launched an automotive electronics production facility near Wrocław, and Daikin has opened a factory near Łódź producing, among other things, heat pumps and airconditioning systems.
E-commerce remains another major growth driver. Online sales already account for around 10% of retail sales in Poland, and their continued growth requires far more advanced logistics infrastructure than traditional retail. Distribution centres serving e-commerce operations handle increasingly complex processes, including returns, order fulfilment and last-mile logistics.
Manufacturing companies opening new facilities across Europe and in Poland are also contributing to demand. Such investments automatically generate the need for logistics infrastructure and efficient supply chains for components and finished products. In addition, sectors that were hardly associated with industrial real estate until recently are emerging as new demand generators: critical and defence infrastructure, R&D centres, data centres and advanced technology manufacturing. All of these activities require modern industrial and logistics space.
More than a warehouse
NajbOne of the most visible consequences of these changes is the evolution of the product itself. Not long ago, logistics facilities were designed primarily for storage and distribution. Today, they increasingly serve as platforms for manufacturing, research, technology and service-related activities.
A good example is LABLOGIC WARSAW, our project located in Warsaw’s Ursynów district. Part of the first phase has been leased by Polpharma under a 20-year agreement for research and development operations.
Modern companies are looking for facilities that integrate multiple business functions. They expect a high-quality working environment, convenient locations, access to public transport and technical specifications aligned with future requirements. In practice, this means that the boundaries between traditional warehouse space, service functions and modern office environments are becoming increasingly blurred.
Real estate has also become a brand statement. Some occupiers expect their warehouse and service facilities – much like modern office buildings – to serve as a showcase for their business in the eyes of both clients and employees.
The market needed a new asset class
This is precisely where we identified a market gap that had remained largely unaddressed in Poland. For decades, the warehouse sector was driven primarily by efficiency and scale. That model was a natural response to the needs of a rapidly growing economy. However, as the market matured, a group of occupiers emerged seeking something beyond standard warehouse space.
These occupiers were looking for properties that combined the functionality of logistics facilities with the quality associated with the best office developments, located within cities or metropolitan areas, offering high-quality work environments and solutions supporting ESG objectives. This gave rise to the concept of premium urban warehouse and service complexes distinguished by their architecture and user experience.
The role of ESG is evolving in a similar way. Environmental certifications have become a market standard, and competitive advantage no longer comes from certification alone but from the tangible impact a building has on operational performance. Lower energy consumption, access to renewable energy sources, reduced carbon footprints and lower heating costs are becoming factors that directly influence occupiers’ business results. A modern warehouse and service facility is no longer merely a place to conduct business. It has become a tool for implementing a company’s business and ESG strategy.
Long-term value
One of the most underestimated elements of the warehouse market remains land value. Discussions typically focus on rents, operating costs and lease terms. From an investor’s perspective, however, an equally important question concerns the long-term potential of a location.
Land situated within major metropolitan areas, well connected and embedded within the existing urban fabric, possesses value that extends beyond its current logistics function. In the future, it may be repurposed for other uses, such as residential. This creates additional investment value and provides long-term appreciation potential regardless of current market cycles. In a world where attractive urban land is becoming increasingly scarce, the importance of this factor will continue to grow.
Time for quality
Poland has already caught up with Western Europe in terms of warehouse market scale and saturation, and in some respects has even surpassed it in terms of modernity. Future growth will therefore not be measured solely by the number of square metres delivered. The next stage is about creating quality and developing a new class of assets that will shape the sector for decades to come. The future belongs to properties capable of responding to increasingly complex economic needs – flexible, multifunctional, integrated with the urban environment and able to preserve their value over the long term. I believe LemonTree is already responding to that need today.